It would be easy to suggest that social networks have reached their peak with Facebook, Twitter, Google+ & Foursquare among countless others, including Sina Weibo and RenRen in Asia to name a few. So much of our Internet activities are centered around sharing with others what we think and do, and reading up on what others are doing. Surely the market will become saturated at some point; as a matter of fact, some are already questioning the value or sustainability social networks, fearing a possible bubble to occur.

The more realistic view though is that social networks are going through the four phases of natural development: Invention, Adaptation, Specialization and finally Obscurity. We can see similar trends in many, if not all, commonly used technology during the last 100 years. A good example would be the television, which I will use here in comparison to the stages of social networking.

Stage 1 – Invention

The first stage for any technology is of course the invention of it. In the early years of the television it was surely a luxary item among the first adopters. Only few could afford the television set and broadcasts were limited. This is the time when the technology is both only for the few and is in its earliest phase of development.

Social networking could be said to have started as early as with IRC, though very primitive and not even called social networking at that time. As with television, it was only available for few, such as universities and some workplaces.

The type of usage for the invention is not always clear at this stage, benefits are questioned or unknown and even harmful consequences are suggested.

Stage 2 – Adaptation

The next step in this natural development is adaptation, where the invention transitions from something used only by a few early adaptors to the masses. This stage can take several forms in a span of years, but most of the time the masses congregate around a certain trend and/or a single channel.

With TV it was in the form of very few channels that engaged audience in everything from news to entertainments to sports. In the early stages you would have almost the whole nation watching a single show, such as I Love Lucy in the USA.

Social networking has had over 10 years of adaptation with early contenders such as Friendster, Classmates and MySpace, but finally catching on with the likes of Facebook, Twitter and other similar networks.

As with the television, these networks are one for all, where people go for news, entertainment and personal interest, all on a single “channel.”

Stage 3 – Specialization

After the invention or technology has become part of our daily lives, a period of specialization is the next obvious step. Now most of the benefits are understood, the initial voices of concern are quieted and the all-important cost factor has been driven down.

The television is such a good example, as its specialization is very evident. TV channels concentrating on specific interest started popping up, with news channels becoming the norm along with the sports channels. But soon, there were even history channels, animal show channels, discovery channels, children’s shows and countless others. Now people could pick what they wanted to see, when they want to see it, simply by picking the right channel.

This is where social networking is heading now. People are increasingly looking for more specialized ways of sharing their content and finding their interest, even within existing social networks. The latest proof of this is Facebook’s latest smartphone Messaging application, purely for users who want an easier way to communicate among themselves.

In the last few months alone, countless of applications are coming out, all trying to find a niche interest market, some of them successful while others are possibly just a tad too early.

But this is a market that Asia could take with a storm, mostly due to the size of its market. If you would develop a social networking app for something like stamp collectors, the USA has roughly 2 million active stamp collectors, while based on that, Asia could have as many as 25 million. In essence, creating specialized social networking applications in Asia is targeting a much bigger demographic, resulting in higher chances of getting enough traction to be successful. Also, once a proven concept in Asia, exporting the applications to the rest of the world could be much easier.

Stage 4 – Obscurity

A few final thoughts on the obscurity part of my theory of technology and invention evolution path: after the specialization, there comes a time when the invention, once truly adapted and saturated, slowly fades into the background.

If we look at the television, we are now at that stage. Even though we still have televisions and tv channels, the idea of watching live images on a screen has changed so dramatically that soon, the word television might be completely redefined in our language.

We are now almost ready to simply call up what we want to watch, wherever we are and whenever we want to watch it. We do not need television channels anymore, we don’t even need standalone TVs like we used to. We can stream the content, and interact with it even. We have live video conferences and we can expect live coverage of anything of interest happening in the world.

The idea of television is fading into obscurity, and what simply remains is the core of it — the ability to watch something via a screen.

Social networking will follow the same path, which could take decades, but in the future, being connected to everyone in the world could be just natural. We will not need to go to special sites anymore to share or find what others have shared. Everything could all just be integrated in our everyday lives.

For you truly inventive out there, maybe you want to skip the specialization stage, and jump straight on to this last stage and develop something truly amazing!

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Originally posted on francistan.me summer 2011